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Adam's avatar

I agree, especially with the part about the use of Bayes' theorem in philosophy. I understand it can be useful in fields like medicine, astronomy and such. And I am not saying philosophy is a worse field or that we cannot use rigour at all. But in philosophy people often just have a intuition about something and than assign it a rather arbitrary number.

An example would be someone who reflects on the claim "God would want to incarnate as a man so He can relate to us better", finds it plausible and says the claim has a probability of 0.85.

The very intuition about something such disconnected from the human experience such as God and His motivations is suspicious. Assigning numerically precise probabilities to such claims is kind of ridiculous.

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Max Hniebergall's avatar

I've recently been thinking a lot about some similar ideas. That academic philosophers are limited in their potential by the incentives of academia. That much of the complexity and prerequisite knowledge of academic philosophy (and academia more broadly) exists primarily to convince other people that the author is very smart and special, and maybe to protect their special idea from dissagreement. It seems to me that this type of philosophy will always be pretty much useless because the mountain of prerequisites virtual guarantees that almost nobody will invest the time required to understand or engage. If you can't present your ideas in a way that other people can understand, you don't actually understand the idea.

If you follow math research at all, you will often see mathematicians apply probabilistic thinking to the likelihood of new proofs being true. The longer and harder it is to understand a proof, the less likely it is to be true, and the more likely it is that there is some minor error which undermines the proof entirely. This is because there are lots of people who's goal is really to prove their own intelligence.

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